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Posted by cdzhomes - Created: 14 years ago
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10 replies (Showing replies: 1 to 10)

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Posted by GordonLeGopher - 14 years ago

"87.3% of all statistics are made up." - Sir James Muir, Statistician. 1997

 

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

For those who might be interested, here are some 1999 National Census (the last complete census results published) stats on foreign residents of Alpes Maritimes:at:http://www.recensement.insee.fr/EN/ST_ANA/D06/NATALLNAT2NAT2AD061EN.html we see that, in Alpes Maritimes 9.5% of men (and 7.3% of women) residents were foreign nationals. and at:http://www.recensement.insee.fr/EN/ST_ANA/D06/NATALLNAT2ANAT2A1D061EN.html we see that 3.6% of Alpes Maritimes residents were from the Européen Union and 4.7% of Alpes Maritimes residents were non-EU foreigners. and at:http://www.recensement.insee.fr/EN/ST_ANA/D06/NATALLNAT2ANAT2A2D061EN.html we see that 1.5% of all Alpes Maritimes residents were Italian and 3.3% were North African.According to the National census "in March 1999, 4,310,000 immigrants were living in France, accounting for 7.4% of the population. This percentage has remained constant since 1975. "

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

Now we're getting to the quick of it. According to the site of the "Notaires des Alpes Maritimes" through which all property transactions must pass, the stats for 2001 say: "Les acquéreurs d 'un bien localisé dans les Alpes Maritimes ont réalisé entre le 1er avril 2000 et le 31 mars 2001.L 'Etranger, principalement l 'Italie, intervient à hauteur de 22 %"In other words, 22% of transactions in 2001 in Alpes Maritimes were to foreigners with Italians being the principal group.The site is at : http://www.chambre-alpesmaritimes.notaires.frThen we go to Nice-Matin of 13 Feb 2004 for Alpes Maritimes where it states: "les Alpes Maritimes ont ressemblé 37.4% des montants des transactions des etrangers ayant choisi l'Hexagone et dans le meme temps le Var 12.4%"For those whose French is not yet perfect, that does NOT say that 37.4% of buyers in 06 are foreigners. It DOES say that of all the foreigners buying property in France, 34.7% of the value (not number of properties) went on in Alpes Maritimes (and 12.4% in the Var).When you consider that property prices in 06 (and even in 83) are 4 or 5 times higher than in Dordogne (another area where there are a lot of foreign buyers) you can safely conclude that the value of the transactions and the number of buyers are two different things. Even my poor statistical analysis skills can see that. ;-)The article goes on to say that about 20% of the value of the property sold in the South East is sold to foreigners: "Me Genest (president de la chambre des notaires evalue 20% la part des etrangers. Ce qui au font, n'est pas aussi important qu'on veut bien le dire Translation: It's less than is often stated.AS 20% represents the value of the transactions, and not the number of transactions and Me Genest says "Les etrangers visent le haut de gamme" can only mean that they are responsible for less than 20% of the transactions (as opposed to the value off the transactions).Elsewhere in the article and concerning Alpes Maritimes, for a one year perioid ending July 2003 "15.9% des acquereurs de maison et 21% d'appartements" were to foreigners, mostly Italian (almost 50% of the foreign buyers in Menton and an average of 34% elsewhere in Alpes Maritimes were Italian - with the Brits coming second but no hard stats were quoted). To note that more foreign buyers bought apartments rather than villas/houses.There is also a mention of Riviera Radio in this N-M article which states that "43% des auditeurs sont francais".

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

quote:blackcat I think that statistical analysis may not be your forte id=quote> You may very well be right. I do however know Nice-matin's reputation for misprints. In today's edition there's an interview with my friend Alex Balkin, about Riviera Scandinavians. Alex has just told me that there are (at least) 4 major factual errors in the article.Never believe what you read in the press.... any press.

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Posted by cdzhomes - 14 years ago

OK .. well thanks for your responses and suggestions 

Yes as Sirlurkalot noted, I said "last year over 40% of property sales in the Cote d'Azur were to foreign buyers" .. which referred to sales and not the number of people living in the cotedazur ... There was a big article in Nice Matin about 2 months ago .. it was actually one of their headline stories .. referring to the number of Northern Europeans moving here ... when I manage to corroborate this .. I will post details! LOL

To be honest, blackcat I think that statistical analysis may not be your forte .. but thanks anyway.

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Posted by Monaco Max-189694 - 14 years ago

I am not so sure. I must admit that my business may not be entirely representative of the whole market, but 40% doesn't sound unlikely to me.MAX (of Monaco)

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

SirLurkalot, you may be right but I still don't think that 40% of current transactions are to non-French. Maybe cdzhomes could look to something like the real estate federation FNAIM for more precise figures?http://ww.FNAIM.fr

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

PACA (Provence-Alpes-Cote'd'Azur) has about 4 million inhabitants. The Alpes Maritimes alone has just over 1 million and is the area where the most foreigners live (at least Europeans and English speakers) but the Var is probably catching up somewhat.If you look at http://www.businessriviera.com/Eco/guide2.asp#ayou will see a few Chambre of Commerce figures. You will also see the following quote:quote:The French Riviera is truly an international nexus point, with 12% of residents coming from abroad (and holding more than 160 different passports). There are Britons, Germans, Italians, Canadians, Americans, Scandinavians… and they each make their contribution to the vibrant interconnective multicultural life of the French Riviera. id=quote>You will also see that 58% of tourists are foreign.That would lead me to believe that 40% foreign property buys last year is grossly exagerated (Nice-Matin can make errors, after all). The figure doesn't seem to fit in proportionally with the 58% tourist figure nor with the overall 12% foreign residents figure. Keep in mind that of the foreign residents many are "magrehbens" (North African immigrant workers and probably not property owners) and traditionally the two biggest national groups in Alpes Maritimes have been Italian and (surprisingly) Portuguese. So if it's English speakers or Britons that interest you, I reckon that 40% is very much too high.

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Posted by SirLurkalot - 14 years ago

I believe the statistic is that 40% of sales, ie transactions, are to foreigners, not that 40% of houses are owned by foreigners.  I think that's perfectly reasonable.  Black Cat, I think you're misunderstanding, or you think there are far more property sales each year than may be the case.

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Posted by Black Cat-192495 - 14 years ago

I doubt very much that the figure you quote could be correct. That would mean almost 2 million people here are foreign.